Years ago I predicted that the early 21st century in Asia will be like the early 20th century except that the roles of Japan and China will be reversed. At this point I can see how the process plays out. In early 20th century it was naïve to assume that Asia will modernize steadily with the strong leadership of Japan. Today, it is naïve to assume that China will democratize itself and pave the way for a long prosperity of Asia through peaceful means. It is obvious for Chinese communist party leaders that they don’t gain anything from Chinese democracy. They will lose everything when China is democratized. I think that some Chinese officials make comments about the need for political reforms only when they criticize their rival factions that support stricter state controls.
The Chinese leaders have no incentive and no intention to accept democracy. They seem to be building the strong economic and military power to fend off foreign and domestic pressures while they implement their sophisticated totalitarian control. China will not offer the alternative model (to the one with democracy and rule of law) for the world to follow, but it offers a model for 21st century’s dictators (“Peaceful Rise” while increasing its military budget more than 10% per year is a clever peace of propaganda).
Many people who wanted to see the demise of China made wrong predictions. It is important to separate their hopes and fears from what is likely happening. They need to think “what the options will be if they were Chinese leaders” to get more realistic scenarios. Then you can rule out the future where China launches total war against the US for the global domination. The most important thing for Chinese leaders is to keep their system as long as they can.
Here is my prediction of what will happen:
Great recession in late 2000s: While the financial shock caused ripple effects around the world China is relatively unscathed. However, the policies that they used to keep their economy afloat deprived them the opportunity to soft land their bubble economy.
2010-2020: Japan will face financial crisis and political turmoil. In a dire economic situation Japanese people will strongly resent China.
China will face the inevitable burst of its bubble economy after it becomes too obvious that most of the Chinese workers cannot afford to buy their homes (just like what happened in Japan). There will be massive riots in everywhere in China. Still, Chinese government will retain the control of media and their leaders will survive the crisis by using their nationalistic sentiment. Chinese leaders will start to say “Foreign powers are determined to stand in our way to restore our rightful position as the leader of Asia”. They will choose the target of their nationalist propaganda carefully. They will choose a hated and militarily weak nation such as Japan as their scapegoat. China will take a hard stance toward Japan in territorial and historical issues.
2020-2030: China’s population bonus ends. The rapid aging of its citizens and decline in the working age people will slow down Chinese economy. At that point there will be groups of neo nationalists in China. They will be the creation of Chinese prosperities rather than the economic hardships. One group will be right wing neo nationalists (new China chauvinists) who believe that Chinese communist party and foreign powers are major obstacles for China to materialize quick improvements in their living standards that they deserve. Another group will be neo socialists who are outraged by the big income inequities but disguise themselves as neo nationalists. Their strategy will be gradually getting into local branches of the government and silently exercising controlling influence (local military districts that Chinese government has a hard time controlling will be their target too).
Chinese government will try to control neo nationalists, but they will have the situation of “tail wagging a dog”. By controlling local government branches, they can do things to push the central government to the edge. If they control a military district they can start a military skirmish too. Since they are free from a fear of divided China they can launch a well calculated coup. It will be a power struggle rather than a democratic revolution. There is no guarantee that communist party wins.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
The next wave of Japanese immigrants
I came to America in the 2nd wave of Japanese immigration to the US. We were called as the New 1st Generation since the 1st generation of Japanese immigrants who came to the US before WWII became senior citizens at that time. There are multiple definitions of the New 1st Generation, but I think the term generally refers to Japanese immigrants who came to America from 70s to 90s. When we came some people thought that we were marginal people who couldn’t be a part of mainstream American, but not really accepted in Japanese American communities. That stereotype somewhat reminds me of the stereotype of Gen-Xers. Decades later many of us are living as a part of American society and don’t have perceived frictions with Japanese American communities.
In general, we are the generation that overcame hardships and assimilated to America like the previous generation. However, the reason why we came is different from that of the previous generation. It is said that most of the pre WWII Japanese immigrants came here to save a lot of money and return to Japan. That situation was depicted in “Gan Gara Gan”, a good manga story about Japanese immigrants by Housei Hasegawa. In the story, Rakuichi Nanotsu tried really hard to make money to go back to Japan. The anti-immigration laws at that time made it difficult for them to save money and many of them stayed here. It is a good lesson from the history.
When we came here Japan already became prosperous. That is why many of us came here to be someone that we want to be rather than escaping poverty. For our generation trips outside of Japan are nothing new. Books such as “How to walk on the planet” became very popular. Some of us read books like “How to quit Japanese” (This is actually not a book on how to move to another country. It is more like a cultural study by comparisons). Some of us are engineers, translators, corporate managers, chefs, etc. The Japanese immigrants in the 2nd wave are mostly non agricultural workers. Some of us who work as specialists tend to have comfortable middle class lifestyles. Together with the flashy lifestyle of Japanese corporate types we were generally viewed as affluent immigrants back then.
I think that the next wave of Japanese immigrants will come in the next 10 to 20 years. In Japan it is estimated that the young generation will have to pay 40 mil yen (about $490K) in tax more than the amount they receive in public services. The senior citizens today will receive 57 mil yen (about $695K) in public services more than they pay in tax. This astounding gap (about $1.2 mil) will trigger them to “vote on foot” (dissent by leaving their country) in a nation where young people only hold minority votes. In the next 10 to 20 years it will be painfully obvious that Japan doesn’t offer bright future for young people. Today, Japanese people who leave the country may be mostly limited to specialists and affluent people, but once mass emigrations start a number of young people will follow.
The next wave of Japanese immigrants will be characterized by the amount of information that they use to choose the best country for them. In our generation it was harder to get information about countries that offer opportunities for us. Today’s young people can use internet (SNS, Twitter, etc.) to get as much information as possible to find a nation that offer young people good opportunities. Since the US is a developed nation that doesn’t have severe aging population issues many Japanese people will decide to move to the US.
In general, we are the generation that overcame hardships and assimilated to America like the previous generation. However, the reason why we came is different from that of the previous generation. It is said that most of the pre WWII Japanese immigrants came here to save a lot of money and return to Japan. That situation was depicted in “Gan Gara Gan”, a good manga story about Japanese immigrants by Housei Hasegawa. In the story, Rakuichi Nanotsu tried really hard to make money to go back to Japan. The anti-immigration laws at that time made it difficult for them to save money and many of them stayed here. It is a good lesson from the history.
When we came here Japan already became prosperous. That is why many of us came here to be someone that we want to be rather than escaping poverty. For our generation trips outside of Japan are nothing new. Books such as “How to walk on the planet” became very popular. Some of us read books like “How to quit Japanese” (This is actually not a book on how to move to another country. It is more like a cultural study by comparisons). Some of us are engineers, translators, corporate managers, chefs, etc. The Japanese immigrants in the 2nd wave are mostly non agricultural workers. Some of us who work as specialists tend to have comfortable middle class lifestyles. Together with the flashy lifestyle of Japanese corporate types we were generally viewed as affluent immigrants back then.
I think that the next wave of Japanese immigrants will come in the next 10 to 20 years. In Japan it is estimated that the young generation will have to pay 40 mil yen (about $490K) in tax more than the amount they receive in public services. The senior citizens today will receive 57 mil yen (about $695K) in public services more than they pay in tax. This astounding gap (about $1.2 mil) will trigger them to “vote on foot” (dissent by leaving their country) in a nation where young people only hold minority votes. In the next 10 to 20 years it will be painfully obvious that Japan doesn’t offer bright future for young people. Today, Japanese people who leave the country may be mostly limited to specialists and affluent people, but once mass emigrations start a number of young people will follow.
The next wave of Japanese immigrants will be characterized by the amount of information that they use to choose the best country for them. In our generation it was harder to get information about countries that offer opportunities for us. Today’s young people can use internet (SNS, Twitter, etc.) to get as much information as possible to find a nation that offer young people good opportunities. Since the US is a developed nation that doesn’t have severe aging population issues many Japanese people will decide to move to the US.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
The paradox of identity politics
Sometimes I want to say “let us all just be Americans”. I do understand that there still are people in the US who don’t consider Asian Americans as mainstream citizens. To some extent I understand the logic of let’s get together to fight racism against us. In that case we are getting together for a common cause to create a nation where we don’t need to get together. That’s a paradox of hyphenated identity politics. With this identity politics, people sometimes criticize others who actually advocate their end goals like “let us all be just Americans”.
I wonder what JACL or Chinese for Affirmative Action members will react when I say “we need to stop discrimination against Asian American students in the admission processes of top schools”. There are those who challenged the situation. Jian. Li, a Yale student who had a perfect SAT score lodged his complaint about alleged racially discriminatory admission policy against Asians at Princeton. I personally think that anyone who thinks that he doesn’t want too many talented Asians at his school should say it in public.
“Asians Against Affirmative Action” a Facebook group says “All we want is to be given a shot at equal opportunity, just as everyone else is. It's time we showed our voice and demand equal opportunity through race blind admissions”. That sounds very American to me (the part that they are willing to fight back). I can even see an echo of MLK’s dream of the nation where race doesn’t matter. I reject ideas such as “some people are more equal than others”. If everyone demands equal opportunity the demands will move us closer to a fairer society.
Identity groups are formed in part to counter discrimination against us. As groups expand their scope wider and wider, they will eventually reach the point to cover every American. At that point it’ll start to make sense to get rid of all of the race based preferential treatments. I wonder if today’s identity groups accept the ideas like “anyone can join this group and we are for everyone in the US”. In other words are they ready to become loosely defined cultural organizations (such as “Chinese cooking fan club”)?
I don’t think that I can find any identity group that clearly states “our goal is to create a society where we are no longer needed”. It’s not that the success of Asian Americans put us in the paradoxical position. I rather think that identity groups are indeed paradoxical (fighting for their irrelevance just like some super heroes).
I wonder what JACL or Chinese for Affirmative Action members will react when I say “we need to stop discrimination against Asian American students in the admission processes of top schools”. There are those who challenged the situation. Jian. Li, a Yale student who had a perfect SAT score lodged his complaint about alleged racially discriminatory admission policy against Asians at Princeton. I personally think that anyone who thinks that he doesn’t want too many talented Asians at his school should say it in public.
“Asians Against Affirmative Action” a Facebook group says “All we want is to be given a shot at equal opportunity, just as everyone else is. It's time we showed our voice and demand equal opportunity through race blind admissions”. That sounds very American to me (the part that they are willing to fight back). I can even see an echo of MLK’s dream of the nation where race doesn’t matter. I reject ideas such as “some people are more equal than others”. If everyone demands equal opportunity the demands will move us closer to a fairer society.
Identity groups are formed in part to counter discrimination against us. As groups expand their scope wider and wider, they will eventually reach the point to cover every American. At that point it’ll start to make sense to get rid of all of the race based preferential treatments. I wonder if today’s identity groups accept the ideas like “anyone can join this group and we are for everyone in the US”. In other words are they ready to become loosely defined cultural organizations (such as “Chinese cooking fan club”)?
I don’t think that I can find any identity group that clearly states “our goal is to create a society where we are no longer needed”. It’s not that the success of Asian Americans put us in the paradoxical position. I rather think that identity groups are indeed paradoxical (fighting for their irrelevance just like some super heroes).
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Learning from history
I’m reading the book titled “Strong men armed” by Robert Leckie. His story in the book as well as others (such as “Helmet for my pillow”) was featured in HBO mini-series “The Pacific”. It is interesting to know that the reason for Japan’s failure in Guadalcanal was attributed to bad information and piece meal commitments of troops. In other words, Japanese generals thought like lieutenants (they rushed to get a quick win without grasping the information about the whole situation) and made poor judgments.
Japanese side of historical accounts often characterize the failure as the result of significant numerical disadvantages. However, Japanese troops didn’t have significant numerical disadvantages in the beginning of the battle. If Japanese generals had planned the troop gathering and logistics carefully and realistically, the US marines would have had much tougher time winning the battle.
After many years since the end of the war, it seems that Japanese large organizations didn’t completely shake off the problem. In 90’s Japanese CEOs thought like managers and couldn’t grasp the changes in businesses and technologies. They made bad judgments and caused two decades of economic decline. Some Japanese business leaders try to hire more foreign employees and make English an official language of their companies. Although they are right moves they failed to address the key issue.
The core issue of Japanese organizations is the lack of meritocracy. They usually don’t demote bad managers and promote good managers quickly enough. As a result, you will see Japanese CEOs who think more like managers in organizations with a long history. In Japan once you hopped on the escalator of social promotion you will be OK for the rest of your career. Some people may say it won’t work that way anymore, but I don’t hear large scale layoffs of mid managers in major Japanese companies often.
The past efforts to introduce meritocracy in Japanese companies had mixed results at best. Some Japanese people seriously argue that it’s impossible to assess a person’s performance. To me, assessing the performance of workers based on their job descriptions and commitments is a basic task for managers.
Japanese companies should reintroduce meritocracy in the following ways.
1. Hire employees based on the job descriptions. Stop the outdated custom of finding employees fresh out of collages.
2. Make labor laws more flexible. Allow companies to lay off workers with certain amount of severance pay. It will create a more flexible labor market.
3. Set realistic and measurable goals for each worker so that managers can assess his/her performance. Each employee should be the advocate of his/her own career and demonstrate their skills and achievements to his/her supervisors and other managers.
4. End life time employment and social promotion.
Japanese side of historical accounts often characterize the failure as the result of significant numerical disadvantages. However, Japanese troops didn’t have significant numerical disadvantages in the beginning of the battle. If Japanese generals had planned the troop gathering and logistics carefully and realistically, the US marines would have had much tougher time winning the battle.
After many years since the end of the war, it seems that Japanese large organizations didn’t completely shake off the problem. In 90’s Japanese CEOs thought like managers and couldn’t grasp the changes in businesses and technologies. They made bad judgments and caused two decades of economic decline. Some Japanese business leaders try to hire more foreign employees and make English an official language of their companies. Although they are right moves they failed to address the key issue.
The core issue of Japanese organizations is the lack of meritocracy. They usually don’t demote bad managers and promote good managers quickly enough. As a result, you will see Japanese CEOs who think more like managers in organizations with a long history. In Japan once you hopped on the escalator of social promotion you will be OK for the rest of your career. Some people may say it won’t work that way anymore, but I don’t hear large scale layoffs of mid managers in major Japanese companies often.
The past efforts to introduce meritocracy in Japanese companies had mixed results at best. Some Japanese people seriously argue that it’s impossible to assess a person’s performance. To me, assessing the performance of workers based on their job descriptions and commitments is a basic task for managers.
Japanese companies should reintroduce meritocracy in the following ways.
1. Hire employees based on the job descriptions. Stop the outdated custom of finding employees fresh out of collages.
2. Make labor laws more flexible. Allow companies to lay off workers with certain amount of severance pay. It will create a more flexible labor market.
3. Set realistic and measurable goals for each worker so that managers can assess his/her performance. Each employee should be the advocate of his/her own career and demonstrate their skills and achievements to his/her supervisors and other managers.
4. End life time employment and social promotion.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Go with the flow
I believe that most of the Japanese people value the relationship with the US just like majority of them value the historical relationship with ancient Chinese dynasties. That is partly because Japanese people tend to go with the flow rather than sticking out like a sore thumb. Some Japanese people still have romanticized views about ancient China as if ancient China didn’t have any cold strategic calculation.
At the end of Tokugawa period, the demise of Chinese power caused panic among some Samurais. From there modern Japan was made by following the example of Britain. That was a time when Japanese people decided to go outward with their own will. It was a time not unlike the time when Nobunaga Oda, the medieval leader ruled Japan. From 1868, Japanese people learned almost everything from the west. Japanese students learned from English speaking professors in the newly formed universities.
As one can tell from the books written by Yukichi Hukuzawa it was a time of globalization. It is rather funny to read today’s arguments about English education in Japan since those arguments mirror a century old argument about English education (learning English is necessary for globalization vs. Japanese should just learn proper Japanese).
After the victory of WWI Japan turned toward nativism. In an aftermath of the Great Depression and the protectionism that followed, globalization lost its importance in Japan. When radical nationalists controlled Japanese military Japan got into the war with China and started the disastrous pacific war.
After WWII, there was a time when Japan enjoyed stability under American rule. It was as if the US became a new middle kingdom for Japanese people. Still now Japanese people above certain age view the US like a big brother. From the US side the relationship is the one bounded by contracts (such as the US Japan security pact) designed to counter the expansion of communist nations. It is rather surprising that some Japanese people expect the US to intervene the territorial dispute between Japan and China when the red army is not attacking Japan. I would say that a nation that cannot stand on its own cannot be view as a sovereign state.
In 70’s there was a high hope for globalization and young people were excited about the future when they can go anywhere in the world and be someone (you will see this sentiments in 70’s manga). However Japanese people started to be more inward looking from 80’s (you will see the trend in 80’s love comedies that I don’t like).
As the history shows globalization in Japan can enjoy the public support just for the short period of time. The idea of getting somewhere in the world on our own cannot be that popular among the risk-averse people. In the end nativists can win by taking full advantage of Japanese people’s nature to go with the flow (“nagai mono niwa makarero”).
At the end of Tokugawa period, the demise of Chinese power caused panic among some Samurais. From there modern Japan was made by following the example of Britain. That was a time when Japanese people decided to go outward with their own will. It was a time not unlike the time when Nobunaga Oda, the medieval leader ruled Japan. From 1868, Japanese people learned almost everything from the west. Japanese students learned from English speaking professors in the newly formed universities.
As one can tell from the books written by Yukichi Hukuzawa it was a time of globalization. It is rather funny to read today’s arguments about English education in Japan since those arguments mirror a century old argument about English education (learning English is necessary for globalization vs. Japanese should just learn proper Japanese).
After the victory of WWI Japan turned toward nativism. In an aftermath of the Great Depression and the protectionism that followed, globalization lost its importance in Japan. When radical nationalists controlled Japanese military Japan got into the war with China and started the disastrous pacific war.
After WWII, there was a time when Japan enjoyed stability under American rule. It was as if the US became a new middle kingdom for Japanese people. Still now Japanese people above certain age view the US like a big brother. From the US side the relationship is the one bounded by contracts (such as the US Japan security pact) designed to counter the expansion of communist nations. It is rather surprising that some Japanese people expect the US to intervene the territorial dispute between Japan and China when the red army is not attacking Japan. I would say that a nation that cannot stand on its own cannot be view as a sovereign state.
In 70’s there was a high hope for globalization and young people were excited about the future when they can go anywhere in the world and be someone (you will see this sentiments in 70’s manga). However Japanese people started to be more inward looking from 80’s (you will see the trend in 80’s love comedies that I don’t like).
As the history shows globalization in Japan can enjoy the public support just for the short period of time. The idea of getting somewhere in the world on our own cannot be that popular among the risk-averse people. In the end nativists can win by taking full advantage of Japanese people’s nature to go with the flow (“nagai mono niwa makarero”).
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Leaving Japan, then and now
I’ve been thinking lately about when was the best time to move from Japan to the US in the past decades. I think that the time between early 80s and early 90s was the best time for Japanese people to come to America. According to my Japanese friend who grew up in the US, the 70s was a tough time for many Asian immigrants. He was regularly taunted by other kids who made “Asian eyes” and shouted racial slurs. One might argue that this kind of thing can happen today, but he was in a good school (where Japanese corporate types send their kids) near a big city.
Most people from Japan that I know who successfully took root here moved between early 80s and early 90s. Some of them came here with their parents and others moved on their own (went to a college, transfer to a US office, etc.). I don’t personally know anyone who made it among those who came from Japan after 2001. I hope that the decade was not the last glimpse of American dream for Japanese people.
There are people who express their thoughts similar to mine. They say coming to America about 20 years ago was a right timing. The trouble is that it is hard to know when is the right time when you are about to move. In 1990, I went to an MBA Q/A session and asked about the prospect of finding a job after getting the degree. I was basically told that there is no guarantee to find a job in the US after the program is done and I should not count on the possibility of finding a visa sponsor. I like straight talkers and I took the advice seriously. I decided to give up the joy of studying for GMAT and sought the opportunity to work in the US HQ (it worked).
When I left Japan most people didn’t use internet. I didn’t even have a cellular phone. Back then voice mail systems seemed to be cutting edge. I bought a copy of “How to walk on the planet” (Chikyu no aruki kata) to get information about the city where I was going to live. At that time I was given the address of my corporate apartment, but the guy in charge forgot to tell me how to get the key! Well, everything is a good memory now.
Most people from Japan that I know who successfully took root here moved between early 80s and early 90s. Some of them came here with their parents and others moved on their own (went to a college, transfer to a US office, etc.). I don’t personally know anyone who made it among those who came from Japan after 2001. I hope that the decade was not the last glimpse of American dream for Japanese people.
There are people who express their thoughts similar to mine. They say coming to America about 20 years ago was a right timing. The trouble is that it is hard to know when is the right time when you are about to move. In 1990, I went to an MBA Q/A session and asked about the prospect of finding a job after getting the degree. I was basically told that there is no guarantee to find a job in the US after the program is done and I should not count on the possibility of finding a visa sponsor. I like straight talkers and I took the advice seriously. I decided to give up the joy of studying for GMAT and sought the opportunity to work in the US HQ (it worked).
When I left Japan most people didn’t use internet. I didn’t even have a cellular phone. Back then voice mail systems seemed to be cutting edge. I bought a copy of “How to walk on the planet” (Chikyu no aruki kata) to get information about the city where I was going to live. At that time I was given the address of my corporate apartment, but the guy in charge forgot to tell me how to get the key! Well, everything is a good memory now.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Overseas Japanese
How to call “overseas Japanese” is an interesting question. Some people say Zaigai Nihon Jin (literally “overseas Japanese”) and others try to come up with a new word like “Wakyou” (Japanese version of Kakyou “overseas Chinese”). I personally call ethnic Japanese people around the world as “Nikkei”. Still others come up with creative words like “Ahoujin”. Since I grew up in Tokyo, “Aho” sounds like the word “Bakka” (which means “stupid”) though. ;-)
How about “Zipangs” or “Wondering Yamatos (Sasurai no Yamato)”?
There are more than 3 million ethnic Japanese outside of Japan. There are 1.4 million Japanese Brazilians and 1.2 million Japanese Americans. During the WWII Japanese Americans in the mainland USA were interned in internment camps (that is what is called “we are found guilty for looking like enemies”). From the experience some of my people stopped learning Japanese and Japanese culture. I don’t blame them. It was a very unfortunate part of American history. I talked with some of those Japanese Americans who lived through the tough time. They couldn’t even go to a market without someone chasing them and shouting profanities at them right after the war. We must have the historical understanding and sensitivities for those who suffered.
I think that the common language for “overseas Japanese” will be English. Not only about half of the overseas Japanese are in English speaking countries, but also English is now the de facto global language. Some may argue that Japanese can be used for the communications between us, but for 2nd and 3rd generation of Japanese immigrants studying Japanese will not be easy. Also, there is no globalized version of Japanese that can be learned without knowing Japanese culture. From my experience of living in Japan, I think that most of Japanese people prefer to have communication difficulties rather than to speak in the simplified Japanese. Of course I could be wrong.
How about “Zipangs” or “Wondering Yamatos (Sasurai no Yamato)”?
There are more than 3 million ethnic Japanese outside of Japan. There are 1.4 million Japanese Brazilians and 1.2 million Japanese Americans. During the WWII Japanese Americans in the mainland USA were interned in internment camps (that is what is called “we are found guilty for looking like enemies”). From the experience some of my people stopped learning Japanese and Japanese culture. I don’t blame them. It was a very unfortunate part of American history. I talked with some of those Japanese Americans who lived through the tough time. They couldn’t even go to a market without someone chasing them and shouting profanities at them right after the war. We must have the historical understanding and sensitivities for those who suffered.
I think that the common language for “overseas Japanese” will be English. Not only about half of the overseas Japanese are in English speaking countries, but also English is now the de facto global language. Some may argue that Japanese can be used for the communications between us, but for 2nd and 3rd generation of Japanese immigrants studying Japanese will not be easy. Also, there is no globalized version of Japanese that can be learned without knowing Japanese culture. From my experience of living in Japan, I think that most of Japanese people prefer to have communication difficulties rather than to speak in the simplified Japanese. Of course I could be wrong.
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